An interlude: Life lessons from Lada

I’m moving away from the political situation in Bosnia today, for a brief interlude, and a personal tale from the weekend, in which a relic of the Soviet Union taught me a valuable lesson.

Dream car #1, Renault 4, Belgrade

For some time now, I have had a hankering to have a car – not just any car, but one of two types that you still see a few of on the roads in the former Yugoslavia – the old Renault 4 or the Lada Niva, still in production today. This hankering, a desire to see more of Bosnia, and my landlord’s fixing skills came together on Friday morning, when I bought a red, 1997 Lada.

Saturday morning gave me the chance to take it up past some of the Olympic skiing zone on Bjelašnica, getting used to driving it and getting used to driving on the right-hand side of the road. All went well, even a couple of encounters with friendly and professional traffic police officers in both Republika Srpska and the Federation.

Susjetka memorial

Saturday having passed off without incident, a couple of intrepid explorers from the US embassy here agreed that it would be fun to use the Lada, as yet without a name, for a planned trip down to Foča near the Montenegrin border, and the nearby national park. We found Foča, successfully located the memorial to the Battle of Sutjeska, but after that, somehow our path was not the one we had expected to take. In what was planned as something like a 90-100 mile round trip, we ended up covering 250 miles and all kinds of marvellous terrain, from the mountain peaks around Sutjeska, to lush valleys with meandering valleys, and high flat plains (see maps, below). By the end of the day, we had been through Gacko, stopped to see some medieval tombs (Stećci) of a kind only really found within the shifting borders of the old Bosnian kingdom, and paused, somewhat exhausted to rest and eat in Mostar.

Dream car #2, Lady on Bjelašnica

Lady (as the Lada was named at some point along the way) taught us a lesson as we were sat on the verge opposite the Church of the Holy Martyr Vukasin near Pridvorci. In the hope of joining a main ‘M’ road to Sarajevo, we pursued a paved road north, and continued for some time as it became a track, and further still as it became a track that made it worth putting on Lady’s differential lock.

Once we lost faith in this track and turned round, we started to encounter a number of problems back on the sealed road. Heads were put together in the car, and we figured the diff-lock was stuck either on, or at any rate, not quite off. By this stage its little lever refused to budge in any direction, and the best offer we had was to drive in 2nd gear as far as the town of Nevesinje, at least 10 kilometres away, and hope to get it fixed the following day.

Krekovi Necropolis

It is at this point that one or two sentences, in small italic text, in a guide for new Niva owners, saved us from the ignominy of the slow trundle to Nevesinje, and sent us back homewards to Sarajevo. A New Zealand Niva enthusiast, Mark Baxter has a page for new Niva users. Here, it is noted that the diff-lock lever can get stuck if infrequently used. And here, Lady’s lesson in life is delivered. To paraphrase: When things seem stuck, reverse a little and try again. This may take several goes. Sound advice for a sticky diff-lock and sound advice for life.

By one o’clock this morning, all were home safe and sound in Sarajevo, grateful to the various kind strangers who stopped (variously calling up a friend to get a number of a local mechanic or giving us sympathy), and grateful to Lady for an amazing trip round Herzegovina and back up into Bosnia.

Planned route

Actual route

Bosnia’s Elections 2014 – Cantonal Level

It’s an election year here in Bosnia, with October elections to legislatures in 10 cantons, both entities and the state parliament, and direct presidential elections in Republika Srpska and for the three member state presidency. The elections run on a four year cycle, with elections to the municipal councils running every four years in the interim. Olympic games – municipal elections; Football world cup – state, entities and cantons.
Municipal elections as a mid-term indicator

The municipal elections can serve as a useful guide to directions of change – when I was writing Making the Transition the 2008 vote pointed towards the decline of the Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina (SBiH) one of the main advocates of centralisation in Bosnia. They had enjoyed major success in 2006, including securing the Bosniak seat on the state Presidency; and many of their 2006 gains were subsequently wiped out in 2010.

2014 seems more difficult to predict, given the unrest and dissatisfaction evident, especially in the Federation. It doesn’t seem that any party has been able to respond to the dissatisfaction in a way that might translate into electoral support.

A tale of two peoples? Stability and change

Maps showing the two entities of Bosnia and Herzegovina, along with Brčko District, and the 10 Cantons of the federation. Maps taken from Making the Transition, 2011.

At the level of the cantons, pooling the results of Municipal elections suggested a fair degree of stability in the three cantons more heavily populated by Croats (Posavina [2 in the map above] in the north and Western Herzegovina [8] and Canton 10*). Here, politics is dominated by the Croat Democratic Union (HDZ BiH) and their splinter party, HDZ 1990.

There are five Cantons which have larger concentrations of Bosniaks (1 Una Sana, 3 Tuzla, 4 Zenica-Doboj, 5 Bosnian Podrinja, 9 Sarajevo). Throughout these, the main picture seems to be that the Party of Democratic Action (SDA), the party formerly led by Alija Izetbegović, is gaining in strength, mainly at the expense of the Social Democratic Party (SDP). This fits with a degree of disillusionment over the SDP record in government; the SDP member of the state Presidency resigned from the party in the middle of his term, serving the remaining time as an independent. 

Tuzla Canton: Projections for 2014 elections based on 2012 municipal results, showing stability for most parties but a loss of 3 seats for SDP and an equivalent gain for SDA. 

Two further cantons, Central Bosnia [6], and Herzegovina-Neretva [7], based around Mostar, have a more even split between the Bosniak and Croat population. Mostar failed to hold municipal elections in 2012, and as it has the largest electorate in the H-N canton, the absence this means there is less of a solid indicator of changes or stability in political direction

In Central Bosnia, the patterns of the Bosniak and Croat-dominated cantons are repeated: stability in HDZ BiH and other Croat-oriented parties (who make up around 1/3 of assembly members). There are drops in support for the SDP as well as for Bosniak-oriented and Multi-ethnic parties (SBB, SBiH, NSRB, the latter possibly winning no seats). The SDA looks to gain from these losses to make up roughly 1/3 of the assembly. 

‘All else being equal’ these educated guesses might suggest a shift back to the domination of the SDA and HDZ in the Federation, but in light of the protests and the Plenums in this part of the country, ‘all things being equal’ does not seem like a safe assumption. New parties can emerge and make an impact relatively swiftly here, as was seen when media-boss Fahrudin Radončić launched his Union for a Better Future (SBB) party in 2009, gaining enough support to secure ministerial representation in the state government after the 2010 elections. Not everyone has a media empire to back them up (Alfa TV, daily paper Dnevni Avaz), but to a lesser extent, other new parties (NSRB, founded 2001) and splinter parties (HDZ 1990, Party of Democratic Activity ASDA) have been able to form a presence, especially at the local level. 

The parties

Following is a list of the main parties covered here

• ASDA, Party of Democratic Activity, splinter party of SDA, Bosniak-oriented, strongest in Una Sana and Zenica cantons. 
• HDZ BiH, Croatian Democratic Union, largest Croat-oriented party, strongest in Croat-dominated cantons and mixed cantons, but present in Assemblies in Zenica-Doboj and Tuzla too. One of the main pre-war parties of government. 
• HDZ 1990, Croatian Democratic Union 1990, splinter party of HDZ BiH, present in Croat and mixed cantons. 
• NSRB, People’s Party for Improvement through Work, multi-ethnic, liberal party founded in 2001, presence has been building in most cantons, but mid-term results suggest a fall-off in support. 
• SBB, multi-ethnic party founded by media-boss and construction entrepreneur Fahrudin Radončić, recently removed from office as minister of security following violent anti-government protests in February. Represented in all cantons except Western Herzegovina and Canton 10. 
• SBiH, Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina, pro-centralisation Bosniak party, enjoyed success in 2006 elections, but saw a major turnaround in 2010. Represented in all cantons except Western Herzegovina and Canton 10.
• SDA, Party of Democratic Action, the largest Bosniak-oriented party and another of the main pre-war parties, represented in all Cantons except Western Herzegovina. After losses in 2010, bounced back in municipal elections. 
• SDP, Social Democratic Party, multi-ethnic party, has been in office at various levels and stages in post-war Bosnia. Largest party in a number of Cantons in 2010 elections (Una Sana, Tuzla, Bosnian Podrinja, Sarajevo). 

*The naming of Canton 10 is a matter of dispute, and it is known variously as Kanton 10, Livanjski kanton, and Hercegbosanska županija. 

Sarajevo Plenum – Deliberation and Demands

Last week, I had my first opportunity to attend one of the Plenums, citizen forums that have been set up in many towns and cities in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina since the protests in February. In Sarajevo, these meet at Dom Mladih, the Youth House.

It was an important meeting as those present voted on the proposed demands to be sent to the Cantonal Assembly here in Sarajevo, and to the Federal Parliament.

The meeting starts with a reminder of house rules, emphasising the fact that while the plenum has moderators, it does not have leaders. The plenums give attendees the space to speak for up to two minutes, and with the support of the room, this can be extended. From these talks, and from working groups, proposals are formulated which go to a vote.

The Plenum heard from representatives visiting from the other Plenums. Of these, the Tuzla representative raised the loudest cheers. In Tuzla they have enjoyed a number of successes, including limiting a range of financial benefits for cantonal assembly members, and the appointment of a new premier, Bahrija Umihanić, a professor of economics. Although the process of appointment was not in line with the Plenum’s hopes, Umihanić attended the meeting of the Plenum in Tuzla on Saturday, suggesting a willingness for dialogue.

In Sarajevo, the demands that had been formulated over preceding weeks were put to a vote, and each received broad support. The Sarajevo Plenum demands to the Cantonal Assembly include a range of social measures, including unemployment benefits, a call for new employment programmes, and space on broadcast media to widen the dialogue represented by the plenum. Demands to the Federal government have been sent to other Plenums, so that a united position can be presented. Already these have the support of Mostar, Tuzla and Bugojno Plenums.

Last Thursday, the local, cantonal demands were to be presented to the Cantonal Assembly, but a scout through the web-based media for that day suggested that it had made little in the way of ripples. Likewise the agenda for today's meeting of the assembly made no mention of it. This reflects something of a loss of the force behind public messages about the level of disappointment with government. The street protests in Sarajevo, while enduring, are much reduced in numbers, and the regular coverage has faded.

There will be elections later this year, but the Plenums are avowedly not endorsing any political party, so for now the issue seems to be one of translating the deliberative work of the Plenums into policy that is considered, adjusted and possibly delivered by representatives chosen in general elections. 

Meeting of the Sarajevo Plenum - 12 March 2014

Football – only a game?

This is a big year for Bosnia – elections, thirty years since Sarajevo and Yugoslavia hosted the winter Olympics, and a century since the assassination of Arch-duke Franz Ferdinand. But it also marks the first time that Bosnia and Herzegovina has qualified for the football world cup. The national team, the dragons (zmajevi), will be heading to Brazil. In the meantime, the trophy paid a visit to Sarajevo, and the team played a friendly game against Egypt last week.

Football, and to be fair, sport of any kind, is not my strong suite, but sporting events are frequently invested with a significance that goes far beyond the athleticism, skills and tactics of the players. The match between the US and Iran at the ’98 world cup is often highlighted as easing tensions between the countries, the captains’ gestures in exchanging gifts at the outset praised as diplomacy on the pitch, but this makes something of a contrast to the words of Ayatollah Khameni’s post-match analysis:

Tonight, again, the strong and arrogant opponent felt the bitter taste of defeat at your hands

In Belgium, football is seen variously as a potential unifying force and an arena in which the country’s divisions are reflected. In Scotland, local rivalries are mixed in with sectarian division. Kosovo fans burned the Serbian flag ahead of their first international football game against Haiti in Mitrovica.

A friend who knows much more about these things than me tells me that it has been associated with hopes of minority integration in France, and with overcoming post-war division in Rwanda. So, what of Bosnia?

Football – mirror to the state

Creating state-level institutions and symbols is not easy here – whether it is a currency, a flag, a state-level judiciary, or a single state-level policing structure. These invariably face political challenges from those who see, and who wish to retain, power at the more local level of government. Until 2005, the country had two armies. Even then, Paddy Ashdown outlines how it took a couple of major scandals in Republika Srpska to give him the leverage to push the changes through (those would be giving refuge to war time General and indicted suspect for war crimes and genocide, Ratko Mladić, and providing military equipment to Iraq in contravention of UN sanctions).

But, in 2002, only two years after Bosnia and Herzegovina formed its first unified border police service, the Bosnian Football Association was formed, bringing together teams from the Federation and Republika Srpska together into one league. The name ‘Nogometni/Fudbalski Savez Bosne I Hercegovine’ reflects the fact that there are variations in the language spoken here.

Before the war, there had been a Bosnian League, and the current association notes that clubs like the local team in Grbavica, Željezničar, Borac of Banja Luka, and Velež of Mostar all went on to win the Yugoslavia wide championship. After the war, the system of football, like most other systems, divided along ethnic and entity lines.

How was unification achieved? In a way, it followed the pattern of the general peace settlement – first Bosniak and Croat teams formed a joint league, followed by agreement on the inclusion of teams from Republika Srpska some time later (in women’s football, this happened last year). Power sharing and the division of appointments followed ethnic lines, with a three member presidency just like the state level government.

When this resulted in Bosnia’s suspension from FIFA for contravening their statute and principles, a dose of international intervention was applied with a FIFA-appointed ‘normalisation committee’, but one made up of domestic football personalities. Maybe this kind of intervention is easier when it is only a game, and when the real centres of state power are not at stake.

Euphoria and common feeling

Football being an internationalised game, only a couple of players in the squad of 29 currently play club-level football in Bosnia. The Bosnian diaspora being what it is, about half have not played at club level in Bosnia. Nonetheless, those with domestic experience have represented clubs across the country. So is this a national institution that can help develop some degree of unity and common feeling in Bosnia?

An article published in the Banja Luka daily, Nezavisne Novine, a paper established after the war with support from US AID to promote non-nationalist media, paints a picture of active, if quieter support for the national squad in Banja Luka, capital of the Republika Srpska.

Further success may support this – euphoria can be infectious. And as a game, football is something that people can project hopes and aspirations onto – the process of articulating hopes for a national team may well translate into a greater identification with the national space. Bosnia have a good chance of getting through the group stages, sustaining the excitement about the dragons a little longer.

A stronger identification with the national level is not inconsistent with other levels or forms of identity and may change how people see the state. Nonetheless, the problems in Bosnia are systematic and need resolution at the political level, and no amount of football will fix that.

And the atmosphere here in Sarajevo when the dragons played Egypt? I’d love to say, but football really is not my strong suite and the screen I was glued to was at Meeting Point cinema, where they were showing the Dallas Buyers Club. I’ll try harder for the first world cup game against Argentina.

Love football, love coffee? Come to Bosnia!

Cups €12.50 at the BH Fan Shop

Mass policing and micro protests

A couple of weeks back the director of the police in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Dragan Lukač, predicted mass protests for 7 March. His predictions came with warnings about the need for new laws on dealing with disorder, suggesting that he anticipated mass protests and disorder would go hand in hand.

The protests continue in Sarajevo and elsewhere, but a visit to the city centre yesterday painted a different picture, one of mass policing and micro protest. Yesterday, with a heavy police presence (including special public order units with full protective gear, helmets etc.), a small group of protesters was restricted to the pavement and an area in Mali Park (see pictures). Again today, traffic was running normally as the protesters were limited to the park area, albeit behind a far lighter cordon of police in their normal, civilian uniforms.

Throughout the protests, which have lasted for more than a month, demonstrators have been blocking one of the city centre's main cross roads. A few days back, after police decided to let traffic through before the end of the protest, a car injured two protesters. In the following days, taxi drivers joined the protests, using their vehicles to block traffic and thus making an important contribution to the safety of the demonstrators. Meanwhile, in Mostar, the last couple of days have seen new police restrictions on protesters.

All in all, it points towards a more 'robust' response from police to what have been, since Saturday 8 February, peaceful, if disruptive protests. Another Sarajevo Plenum will be held on Wednesday. The Plenum has already voiced its objection to the policing of the protests, including the arrest of three protesters (in German here). We can expect to hear more on this.

In the meantime, regarding the violence of 8 February, police are dealing with this using legislation on terrorism and attacks on the constitutional order. On Friday, two were detained under the relevant provisions of state criminal law.

Police and protesters, Sarajevo, 7 March

Reading the (Bosnian) Riots

Last summer, William Hunt, Ferida Duraković and Zvonimir Radeljković wrote in Dissent about the possibility that a younger generation of Bosnians might turn to protest. Less than a year on, this has come to pass, but it is not just the younger generation, rather people of all ages. 

My first few days in the country have given me a chance to talk to people about the protests in a number of cities here, and about the violence that took place in early February in Tuzla, Bihać, Mostar, Sarajevo and Zenica, the five largest cities in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina. 

The move from relatively peaceful protests to a swift escalation and spread brought to mind the UK’s own riots in 2011, when what started as a peaceful protest outside a police station in Tottenham became violent, and then spread first to other areas of London and then to other major urban centres in England. 

The most obvious difference between those riots, and the riots here in Bosnia, is the targeted nature of violence. Here, the targets were overwhelmingly government buildings, including cantonal government offices, state institutions, and in Mostar, political party offices. This is in stark contrast to the UK, where a joint Guardian/LSE report, Reading the Riots, paints a picture of a combination of battles with police and the widespread targeting of commercial premises. 

The sources of dissatisfaction bear some similarity, albeit defined by different contexts. The Guardian/LSE study sample of rioters most commonly cited poverty, policing, government policy, unemployment and the shooting of Mark Duggan as important causes of the riots. 

Before the widespread riots of 7 February, protests in Tuzla had centred on the collapse of the canton’s industries, particularly after a series of privatisations. Workers who saw their industries, their jobs and their livelihoods disappear, sought some form of compensation. Alongside this is a strong sense that the politicians here are doing very well in a country suffering widespread poverty and mass unemployment. A common chant heard during protests is lopovi (thieves). Again and again, injustice comes up. But the background of dissatisfaction with the police and policing has not been a factor I have seen here yet. 

In another way, policing may be important. When I was last in Sarajevo in 2005 various international agencies, including the EU and the Office of the High Representative, were focusing on the problem of police coordination in a country with 10 cantonal forces, two entity forces, a special district force, a state force, and a border force. A television campaign featured a police officer pursuing gangsters, only to be stopped by an invisible barrier. While maintaining day to day order is a responsibility of Cantonal police, the security of Federal and State buildings is down to those particular levels of government. So in Sarajevo, when there is a mass protest, which involves attacks on Federal and State buildings, three forces are involved, and it has been suggested that failures in coordination limited the police ability to contain the violence. 

A number of stories are doing the rounds regarding the violence, the extent to which it was orchestrated and if police ineffectiveness might have been part of a political strategy. It’s interesting that these stories have currency, but on the question of the police response, it is also worth remembering how many days passed in the UK before the riots of 2011 were contained. 

As it happened, the violence was more or less limited to two days in Tuzla and one in other cities. Like in London and other UK cities, it was followed by citizen-led clean-up actions. It has also been followed by a more peaceful form of direct democracy, as plenums meet in various locations and pass requests to governments. Already, the Tuzla plenum has claimed a victory in the scrapping of the bijeli hljeb (white bread) payments that representatives receive at the end of their mandate. 

Independence day – a contested holiday

Today I moved in and out of independence day (Dan nezavisnosti). A walk up through Grbavica, my new home in Sarajevo, to the Vraca Park memorial to those who died in the Second World War took me out of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and briefly into Bosnia’s other entity, Republika Srpska. In the absence of a state-level law on the ‘independence day’ holiday, this meant moving from one part of the country where the holiday is recognised, to another where it is not.

1 March 1992 was the second day of the referendum in which a majority of the Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s voters opted for separation from a Yugoslav federation that had already seen three of six republics opt for independence. The referendum was not supported in municipalities under the control of Serb political parties such as Radovan Karadžić’s Serbian Democratic Party. Recognition of the new state came the following month, but was swiftly followed by the escalation of hostilities in a war lasted until late 1995.

It is no surprise that the state contested at its birth (some may say rebirth pointing to the medieval Bosnian kingdom, or the republic’s place in Yugoslavia), and in many ways continuously contested since, should struggle to find consensus on a meaningful national day. The same problem occurs in November, with Statehood Day (Dan državnosti, 25 November) and Day of the Republic (Dan Republike, 29 November), which respectively mark the ZAVNOBiH and AVNOJ* meetings of 1943. These can be taken as formal beginnings for post-war socialist Bosnia and Herzegovina and Yugoslavia.

Željko Komsić, the current head of the three member state Presidency who stands as the Croat member of the ethnically-defined troika, marked the occasion with a formal reception for local dignitaries and international representatives. His colleague Bakir Izetbegović, the Bosniak representative, unable to attend on health grounds, marked the occasion with a positive message to the country’s citizens.

The Serb member of the rotating presidency, Nebojša Radmanović, stated that the day is not, and will not be, a state-recognised holiday. The day is one which is cited as featuring the first victim of the Bosnian war, a wedding guest shot while carrying a Serbian flag in the old town of Sarajevo, Baščaršija.

Likewise, while Nermin Nikšić, prime minister of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina wished all citizens of Bosnia a happy independence day, Milorad Dodik, president of the Republika Srpska is quoted in the Serbian daily, Blic, characterising the day as one of trauma, not only for Bosnia’s Serbs who were separated from Serbs in other states, but also for Croats and Bosniaks, because of the violence of the ensuing secession. Such a position depends on an assumption that in the absence of a referendum, Bosnia would have avoided war. Given the existing tensions and violence in the country and elsewhere in Yugoslavia before the referendum, this is not a given.  

So for now, the day of independence is one endorsed by authorities on one side of an internal border, and two-thirds of a three member presidency. 

*ZAVNOBiH – State Anti-Fascist Council for the People’s Liberation of Bosnia and Herzegovina; AVNOJ – Anti-Fascist Council for the People’s Liberation of Yugoslavia